WASHINGTON (AP) — A new AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll reveals a near-even split among Americans on whether former President Donald Trump should face prison time following his felony conviction on hush money charges.
The poll shows that 48% of U.S. adults believe Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, should serve time, while 50% disagree. A significant majority of Democrats (80%) think Trump should go to prison, whereas independents are divided, with 49% in favor and 46% against. Most Republicans view Trump as unfairly treated by the legal system and oppose imprisonment, contrasting with Democrats who generally believe in the fairness of the trial process.
This divide highlights the partisan perspectives on a historic case, marking the first time a current or former U.S. president has been convicted of a felony. Both Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden have leveraged the trial in their campaigns: Biden emphasizing Trump’s unprecedented felony conviction, and Trump arguing the charges are politically motivated by Democrats.
Trump’s sentencing has been postponed from Thursday to September, aligning with the start of early voting in several states and just before the Republican National Convention.
Dolores Mejia, a 74-year-old Republican from Peoria, Arizona, commented, “I thought it was all a sham to begin with. I wasn’t surprised he got convicted because the court was in New York, a very blue state. … It seemed like it was thoroughly stacked against him.”
However, a minority of Republicans dissent from the party line. The poll indicates that 14% of Republicans approve of Trump’s conviction, and 12% believe he should serve time. Leigh Gerstenberger, a Pennsylvania Republican, expressed disappointment in Trump, saying, “I could not be more disappointed in his conduct both in office and out of office. There are plenty of Americans who have spent time behind bars for lesser offenses. President Trump should not be treated any differently.”
Around 40% of U.S. adults are confident that Trump was treated fairly by the legal system. Approval for Trump’s conviction stands at 46%, consistent with a June AP-NORC poll, while about 30% disapprove, and 25% remain neutral.
Some Americans oppose Trump’s imprisonment but reject his claims of unfair treatment. Christopher Smith, a 43-year-old independent from Tennessee, stated, “I don’t think the particular crime deserves time. I see what he did, lying on business records because of an affair, as more of a moral crime.”
In contrast, there is less division over Hunter Biden’s recent conviction for lying about drug use when purchasing a gun. Sixty percent of U.S. adults approve of his conviction, with relatively smaller political differences: approximately 60% of Democrats and 70% of Republicans support the conviction. Additionally, 60% believe Hunter Biden should serve time in prison.
The AP-NORC poll, conducted June 20-24, 2024, surveyed 1,088 adults using a representative sample from NORC’s AmeriSpeak Panel. The margin of error is ±4.0 percentage points.
